Peramalan Populasi Sapi di Provinsi Riau dan Indonesia Menggunakan Pendekatan ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24014/jupet.v18i2.11558Keywords:
ARIMA, impor, peramalan, populasi sapi, provinsi riauAbstract
ABSTRAK. Sejak beberapa tahun terakhir, Indonesia selalu melakukan impor daging sapi dari luar negeri untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri. Hal tersebut dikarenakan stok daging nasional hanya mampu memenuhi permintaan dalam negeri sebanyak 45-70 persen sejak tahun 2018. Salah satu upaya peningkatan produksi daging sapi dapat dilakukan dengan cara melakukan upaya peningkatan populasi sapi dan salah satunya adalah dengan melakukan Program Integrasi Sawit-Sapi. Sebagai provinsi yang memiliki luas areal sawit terbesar di Indonesia, Provinsi Riau menjadi provinsi yang dapat dijadikan percontohan pengembangan program ini sehingga perlu diadakan analisis lebih lanjut untuk mencari target potensial peningkatan populasi sapi yang bisa dicapai di Provinsi Riau dalam lima tahun ke depan (2021-2025). Analisis dengan menggunakan metode ARIMA digunakan untuk memproyeksikan populasi sapi di Provinsi Riau dan populasi nasional dalam jangka waktu tersebut. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa proyeksi peningkatan populasi sapi di Provinsi Riau hanya sebesar 0,13 persen dan memiliki potensi peningkatan hingga 5,22 persen. Sementara itu, dalam kurun waktu yang sama, peningkatan populasi sapi nasional sebesar 1,87 persen dengan potensi maksimal hingga 3,74 persen. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, peningkatan populasi sapi di Provinsi Riau dengan mengaplikasikan Program Integrasi Sawit-Sapi layak untuk dilakukan karena memiliki potensi peningkatan yang lebih besar dibandingkan potensi peningkatan populasi sapi secara nasional.
The Forecasting of Cow Population in Riau Province with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach
ABSTRACT. Since the last few years, Indonesia always imported beef from abroad to meet domestic needs. This is because the national meat stock is only able to meet 45-70 percent of domestic demand since 2018. One of the efforts to increase beef production can be done by making efforts to increase the population of cattle and one of them is by implementing the Oil-Cattle Integration Program. As a province that has the largest oil palm area in Indonesia, Riau Province has become a pilot province for the development of this program. So further analysis is needed to find potential targets to increasing cattle population that can be achieved in Riau Province in the next five years (2021-2025). Analysis using the ARIMA method is used to predict the cattle population in Riau Province and the national population in time. The results of the analysis show that the forecast of increase in cattle population in Riau Province is only 0.13 percent and has maximum potential up to 5.22 percent. Meanwhile, during the same period, the forecast of increase in the national cattle population was 1.87 percent with a maximum potential up to 3.74 percent. Based on the calculation, increasing the cattle population in Riau Province by applying the Oil Palm-Cattle Integration Program is feasible because it has the potential for an increase which is greater than the potential for increasing the population of cattle nationally.
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